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XM and the 386

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Rick Galati

Joined: 10 Jan 2006
Posts: 91
Location: Lake St. Louis MO.

Posted: Sat Feb 18, 2006 9:36 am Post subject: XM and the 386

Right off, I freely submit I barely understand the complexities involved but just the same, I'll throw this thought out there and maybe glean some useful insights from those more knowledgable. 



I would love to own a Garmin 396.  I could buy one sure...but....I am loathe to commit to an ongoing monthly subscription for the primary reason for buying one......XM weather services.  To me, a on-going $50 per month service fee is not an insignificant commitment. Beside, I just don't like elective monthly payments period.



I keep reading reports that XM radio is in serious financial trouble and is generally falling short of its goals.  Is XM satellite weather subject to the same financial pressures as XM satellite radio? Cutting to the chase: Within the framework of our capitalistic system, it is reasonable to suppose that XM technology is here to stay BUT at some point a structural reorganization will likely occur within the XM industry.  If so, is there any likelyhood that monthly subscription services for XM weather services relevant to the 386 (and its eventual successor) will trend downward like so many other hi-tech consumer products?



Rick Galati  RV-6A  "Darla"

dan.beadle(at)inclinesoft
Guest

Posted: Sat Feb 18, 2006 3:39 pm Post subject: XM and the 386

XM did report a higher than expected loss this week.  BUT



They have the most subscribers.  Their true fixed costs - the costs of

satellites - are not going up while subscribers have doubled.  They seem to

be in the early, easy spending stages.  They will likely start to watch

pennies as they mature, but in this kind of play, it is all about

subscribers.  They have plenty of content to keep attracting subscribers.

Right now, there are only 5 million.  But the target population is 300

million. And some people will have multiple subscriptions - for Garmins,

boom boxes, etc., as well as cars.



I just committed to $6K upgrade to my MX-20 to put the weather on the panel

in my C414.



The RV8 will get a G396 ---- and another subscription.



Dan

--

ronlee(at)pcisys.net
Guest

Posted: Sat Feb 18, 2006 3:59 pm Post subject: XM and the 386

 	  Quote: 	
		  Right now, there are only 5 million.  But the target population is 300

million.


	




300 million is high by perhaps a factor or 5-10.



Ron Lee



Do not archive

alexpeterson(at)earthlink
Guest

Posted: Sat Feb 18, 2006 8:41 pm Post subject: XM and the 386

 	  Quote: 	
		   I keep reading reports that XM radio is in serious financial 

 trouble and is generally falling short of its goals.  Is XM 

 satellite weather subject to the same financial pressures as 

 XM satellite radio? Cutting to the chase: Within the 

 framework of our capitalistic system, it is reasonable to 

 suppose that XM technology is here to stay BUT at some point 

 a structural reorganization will likely occur within the XM 

 industry.  If so, is there any likelyhood that monthly 

 subscription services for XM weather services relevant to the 

 386 (and its eventual successor) will trend downward like so 

 many other hi-tech consumer products?

 

 Rick Galati  RV-6A  "Darla"


	


I would guess that both Sirius and XM will have to go through bankruptcy

before becoming profitable.  I would not expect the monthly subscription

price to go down, more likely they will inch up (classic captive market).

Most high tech products whose prices have come down occur due to many

factors, including cheap labor, low entry barriers for competitors, and high

volume manufacturing, none of which apply to the satellite data business.



Just a guess.



Alex Peterson

RV6-A N66AP 714 hours

Maple Grove, MN

do not archive

dan.beadle(at)inclinesoft
Guest

Posted: Sat Feb 18, 2006 10:06 pm Post subject: XM and the 386

This is a classic B-School type scenario - "Platform Strategy".  They have

subscribers growing, fixed costs.  So as subscribers go up, cost per

subscriber goes down.  



The issue is that they are starting to pay huge fees to lock up sources -

NFL vs MLBB... Stern... etc.  These are not core to current costs, but they

are positioning for the future.



Yes, I think they will get some sanity - cutting some costs.  But I doubt

bankruptcy.  If they double subscriptions again, they are in the black.  And

GM/Delphi are invested in XM.  The marketing channel is well defined.



iTunes helps drive demand.  Who wants commercials?  I do lament the loss of

the local content... But, that is the cost of the platform strategy.





--

ceengland(at)bellsouth.ne
Guest

Posted: Sun Feb 19, 2006 6:48 am Post subject: XM and the 386

Alex Peterson wrote:



 	  Quote: 	
		  

  



>I keep reading reports that XM radio is in serious financial 

>trouble and is generally falling short of its goals.  Is XM 

>satellite weather subject to the same financial pressures as 

>XM satellite radio? Cutting to the chase: Within the 

>framework of our capitalistic system, it is reasonable to 

>suppose that XM technology is here to stay BUT at some point 

>a structural reorganization will likely occur within the XM 

>industry.  If so, is there any likelyhood that monthly 

>subscription services for XM weather services relevant to the 

>386 (and its eventual successor) will trend downward like so 

>many other hi-tech consumer products?

>

>Rick Galati  RV-6A  "Darla"

>    

>



I would guess that both Sirius and XM will have to go through bankruptcy

before becoming profitable.  I would not expect the monthly subscription

price to go down, more likely they will inch up (classic captive market).

Most high tech products whose prices have come down occur due to many

factors, including cheap labor, low entry barriers for competitors, and high

volume manufacturing, none of which apply to the satellite data business.



Just a guess.



Alex Peterson

RV6-A N66AP 714 hours

Maple Grove, MN

do not archive




	


The most likely solution (since the FAA won't 'do the right thing' & 

simply lease a transponder channel to supply us an avgas-tax supported 

feed) is coming in the next few years with broadband wireless, like 3G & 

WiMax. As those technologies spread, we will be able to use the same 

service for home broadband internet & to get info via a cellphone-like 

interface to a data screen (PDA or PDA/phone combo, computer, etc) in 

the plane. A friend is already getting in-flight weather with his 

PDA/phone. If you're flying anywhere near an interstate highway (most of 

the time you are), you can do this stuff now.



Charlie

cjensen(at)dts9000.com
Guest

Posted: Sun Feb 19, 2006 8:42 am Post subject: XM and the 386

I would guess that both Sirius and XM will have to go through bankruptcy



before becoming profitable.  I would not expect the monthly subscription



price to go down, more likely they will inch up (classic captive

market).



Most high tech products whose prices have come down occur due to many



factors, including cheap labor, low entry barriers for competitors, and

high



volume manufacturing, none of which apply to the satellite data

business.



Just a guess.



Alex Peterson



Alex,



You are spot on.  Sirius and XM are plummeling each other on the way to

bankruptcy, or at least a major financial reorginization, but they are

doing so by spending $142 on marketing for each new subscriber (last

year it was $102/subscriber), not on price.  It's a race to critical

mass...can they get there before they run out of money, or running out

of people willing to buy their debt.  Can you say 'satellite phone

systems'. 



But what they are not doing to get new subscribers is cutting price.

Marketing is a one time expense, low subscription rates are forever.

They won't poison their own well, so the numbers you see are as low as

they go....unfortunately.



Chuck Jensen



Do Not Archive

der_Jagdflieger(at)prodig
Guest

Posted: Sun Feb 19, 2006 8:59 am Post subject: XM and the 386

Charlie, I presume you are aware that your "friend"

is violating both FCC and FAA regulations as well

as the restrictions of his service provider when he

operates his cellular phone in an aircraft that is

not on the ground. 



---

flynlow(at)usaviator.net
Guest

Posted: Sun Feb 19, 2006 10:15 am Post subject: XM and the 386

Charlie;



I have internet in my Semi-Truck through Sprint. Works most places when on

the interstate. I assume that it would also work in the airplane. Not

finished yet so have not tried it, but reception should be good. Not legal

at this time, but I suspect it will be one day.



Bud Silvers

RV8 Finishing



--

ceengland(at)bellsouth.ne
Guest

Posted: Sun Feb 19, 2006 10:30 am Post subject: XM and the 386

These aren't, technically, cell phones. You might be able to make a case 

for violating some archaic FAA rule, but those much more authority to 

speak than me say that the new technology is not restricted to ground 

use under FCC rules.



My point is that new technology will soon render the XM issue mute.



Charlie



Howard Walrath wrote:



[quote]



Charlie, I presume you are aware that your "friend"

is violating both FCC and FAA regulations as well

as the restrictions of his service provider when he

operates his cellular phone in an aircraft that is

not on the ground. 



---

matronics(at)cencula.com
Guest

Posted: Sun Feb 19, 2006 3:02 pm Post subject: XM and the 386

AFAICT, it's only the 900MHz phones that are against FAA regulations.  Most 

current phones don't use the 900MHz bands.



On Sunday February 19 2006 11:57, Howard Walrath wrote:

 	  Quote: 	
		   

 <der_Jagdflieger(at)prodigy.net>



 Charlie, I presume you are aware that your "friend"

 is violating both FCC and FAA regulations as well

 as the restrictions of his service provider when he

 operates his cellular phone in an aircraft that is

 not on the ground.

Vanremog(at)aol.com
Guest

Posted: Sun Feb 19, 2006 6:29 pm Post subject: XM and the 386

In a message dated 2/19/2006 10:31:38 A.M. Pacific Standard Time,  

ceengland(at)bellsouth.net writes:



My point  is that new technology will soon render the XM issue  mute.



And also moot.  



GV (RV-6A  N1GV O-360-A1A, C/S, Flying 774hrs, Silicon Valley, CA)

ceengland(at)bellsouth.ne
Guest

Posted: Sun Feb 19, 2006 7:01 pm Post subject: XM and the 386

Vanremog(at)aol.com wrote:



 	  Quote: 	
		  



 

In a message dated 2/19/2006 10:31:38 A.M. Pacific Standard Time,  

ceengland(at)bellsouth.net writes:



My point  is that new technology will soon render the XM issue  mute.



And also moot.  



GV (RV-6A  N1GV O-360-A1A, C/S, Flying 774hrs, Silicon Valley, CA)

  



duhhh....
	


Thanks; I was obviously typing in my sleep.



Charlie

do not archive

cjensen(at)dts9000.com
Guest

Posted: Mon Feb 20, 2006 7:32 am Post subject: XM and the 386

No problem....we new what you mint.

Do Not Archive.



In a message dated 2/19/2006 10:31:38 A.M. Pacific Standard Time,  

ceengland(at)bellsouth.net writes:



My point  is that new technology will soon render the XM issue  mute.



And also moot.  



GV (RV-6A  N1GV O-360-A1A, C/S, Flying 774hrs, Silicon Valley, CA)

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