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Chances are.....

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Rick Galati

Joined: 10 Jan 2006
Posts: 91
Location: Lake St. Louis MO.

Posted: Mon Jun 26, 2006 6:19 am Post subject: Chances are.....

Listers,

   

  Oftentimes a weather report or outlook will include wording something similar to this....."a  40% chance of thunderstorms occurring."  My question is this. What does a "40% chance" actually mean?  By my (always suspect) reasoning,  I've long thought it meant something along these lines:  Under similiar atmospheric conditions, thunderstorms have developed 40% of the time.  Is this or is this not an accurate opinion?

   

  Also on a non RV related note......You read that it was a "3" alarm or a "4" alarm fire.   What do the number of alarms reported really mean?

   

  Rick Galati  RV-6A  "Darla"

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PFolbrecht(at)starkinvest
Guest

Posted: Mon Jun 26, 2006 7:01 am Post subject: Chances are.....

That is accurate.  Predicting convective activity is a matter of statistics.  The conditions are analyzed and probabilities assigned.  

   

Do not archive  

   

         

  

From: owner-rv-list-server(at)matronics.com [mailto:owner-rv-list-server(at)matronics.com] On Behalf Of Rick Galati

 Sent: Monday, June 26, 2006 9:17 AM

 To: rv-list(at)matronics.com

 Subject: Chances are.....  

  

     

Listers,  

    

   

    

Oftentimes a weather report or outlook will include wording something similar to this....."a  40% chance of thunderstorms occurring."  My question is this. What does a "40% chance" actually mean?  By my (always suspect) reasoning,  I've long thought it meant something along these lines:  Under similiar atmospheric conditions, thunderstorms have developed 40% of the time.  Is this or is this not an accurate opinion?  

    

   

    

Also on a non RV related note......You read that it was a "3" alarm or a "4" alarm fire.   What do the number of alarms reported really mean?  

    

   

    

Rick Galati  RV-6A  "Darla"

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rv7(at)b4.ca
Guest

Posted: Mon Jun 26, 2006 7:03 am Post subject: Chances are.....

On 7:16:55 2006-06-26 Rick Galati <rick6a(at)yahoo.com> wrote:

 	  Quote: 	
		     Oftentimes a weather report or outlook will include wording

 something similar to this....."a  40% chance of thunderstorms

 occurring."  My question is this. What does a "40% chance" actually

 mean?


	


I've been told locally that "40% chance of thunderstorms" means that there

is a 40% chance that there will be a thunderstorm *somewhere in the region*

during that time period.  Here in Vancouver, BC, the "region" they usually

refer to covers the entire lower mainland, which is a pretty big area.  An

area large enough that it's not uncommon to sit at the airport in Delta, BC

and watch rain on the mountains just 15 miles to the north, while

sweltering in your shorts under blue skies.



 	  Quote: 	
		     Also on a non RV related note......You read that it was a "3" alarm

 or a "4" alarm fire.   What do the number of alarms reported really

 mean?


	


I always thought it was the number of fire stations that responded.  3

alarms means the alarms sounded at three stations because they needed that

many trucks to put it out.



-Rob



Do not archive

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LloydDR(at)wernerco.com
Guest

Posted: Mon Jun 26, 2006 7:44 am Post subject: Chances are.....

From my understanding 40% means that for the prevailing  conditions, 4 out of 10 tens it will rain.

 Number of Alarms means that if you have a 4 alarm fire,  that they required the number of people from 4 fire stations to respond to  control the fire. Depending on the size, locale, and conditions, a certain  number of trucks/Firemen will be required, the larger the fire, or the worse the  conditions, the more people and equipment required to control it, Hence the  number of alarms equals the number of stations responding to the  call.

 Dan 

 40269 RV10E

 (N289DT)



   From: owner-rv-list-server(at)matronics.com  [mailto:owner-rv-list-server(at)matronics.com] On Behalf Of Rick  Galati

Sent: Monday, June 26, 2006 10:17 AM

To:  rv-list(at)matronics.com

Subject: Chances  are.....

 

 Listers,

  

 Oftentimes a weather report or outlook will include wording something  similar to this....."a  40% chance of thunderstorms  occurring."  My question is this. What does a "40% chance" actually  mean?  By my (always suspect) reasoning,  I've long thought it meant  something along these lines:  Under similiar atmospheric conditions,  thunderstorms have developed 40% of the time.  Is this or is this not an  accurate opinion?

  

 Also on a non RV related note......You read that it was a "3" alarm or a  "4" alarm fire.   What do the number of alarms reported  really mean?

  

 Rick Galati  RV-6A  "Darla"

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hudzilla(at)gmail.com
Guest

Posted: Mon Jun 26, 2006 9:16 am Post subject: Chances are.....

Good, got the statistics covered now on to the Alarm question.  



An "Alarm" in this context is a description of a first response of a standard force to handle "the situation".  When multiple alarms are called they represent a graduation of response and among fire service folks are often refered to as "yard sales" or "reunions" due to the tendancy for large ammounts of equipment littering the area and getting to see fineman from stations a districs you don't normally see.  The responses are widly different among different districts.  What a rural district would call a 3 alarm, a city district might a single.  There is no set specification.  I used to work with a chief that would call a second alarm on car accidents.  Maybe the flares worried him... 



On 6/26/06, Rick Galati <rick6a(at)yahoo.com (rick6a(at)yahoo.com)> wrote: 	  Quote: 	
		   Listers,

   

  Oftentimes a weather report or outlook will include wording something similar to this....."a  40% chance of thunderstorms occurring."  My question is this. What does a "40% chance" actually mean?  By my (always suspect) reasoning,  I've long thought it meant something along these lines:  Under similiar atmospheric conditions, thunderstorms have developed 40% of the time.  Is this or is this not an accurate opinion? 

   

  Also on a non RV related note......You read that it was a "3" alarm or a "4" alarm fire.   What do the number of alarms reported really mean?



    

  Rick Galati  RV-6A  "Darla"

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cjensen(at)dts9000.com
Guest

Posted: Mon Jun 26, 2006 9:16 am Post subject: Chances are.....

It seems like a play on words, but instead of there a "40% chance of a

thunderstorm somewhere in the region", I believe it would be more

accurate to say there was a "40% chance of a thunderstorm at any single

point in the region".  At a 40% of TS, there is close to a 100% chance

that somewhere in the region, there will be at least one TS.



Thanks,

Chuck Jensen



 

 	  Quote: 	
		   I've been told locally that "40% chance of thunderstorms" means that

there
	


 	  Quote: 	
		   is a 40% chance that there will be a thunderstorm *somewhere in the

 region*

 during that time period.  Here in Vancouver, BC, the "region" they

usually
	


 	  Quote: 	
		   refer to covers the entire lower mainland, which is a pretty big area.

An
	


 	  Quote: 	
		   area large enough that it's not uncommon to sit at the airport in

Delta,
	


 	  Quote: 	
		   BC

 and watch rain on the mountains just 15 miles to the north, while

 sweltering in your shorts under blue skies.

 

 >   Also on a non RV related note......You read that it was a "3"

alarm
	


 	  Quote: 	
		   > or a "4" alarm fire.   What do the number of alarms reported really

 > mean?

 

 I always thought it was the number of fire stations that responded.  3

 alarms means the alarms sounded at three stations because they needed

that
	


 	  Quote: 	
		   many trucks to put it out.

 

 -Rob

 

 Do not archive

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rv8(at)lazy8.net
Guest

Posted: Mon Jun 26, 2006 4:09 pm Post subject: Chances are.....

What usually happens it that the forecast (guess) will say "chance of rain is 40% this morning, 60% this afternoon, and 30% this evening". 

 

 This means a total chance of 130%, so you might as well get a hotel room and wait for morning to head home.

 

 John

 

 

 

 Rick Galati wrote:  	  Quote: 	
		     Listers,

    

   Oftentimes a weather report or outlook will include wording something similar to this....."a  40% chance of thunderstorms occurring."  My question is this. What does a "40% chance" actually mean?  By my (always suspect) reasoning,  I've long thought it meant something along these lines:  Under similiar atmospheric conditions, thunderstorms have developed 40% of the time.  Is this or is this not an accurate opinion?

    

   Also on a non RV related note......You read that it was a "3" alarm or a "4" alarm fire.   What do the number of alarms reported really mean?

    

   Rick Galati  RV-6A  "Darla"

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cecilth(at)juno.com
Guest

Posted: Tue Jun 27, 2006 5:54 am Post subject: Chances are.....

In my mind I picture this.

You have a county size piece of land. 

You have several thunder cells and say they are a half mile in diamiter. 

They are moving at say 5 miles an hour across the county.

Each one cuts a halfmile wide swath across the county.

Depending on how many "swaths" there are you would have a 20%, 40%, 50%,

60%, 80% chance of getting wet

Thats my mental picture, others may have different pictures.

Mine is a small mind.

Cecil





On Mon, 26 Jun 2006 07:16:55 -0700 (PDT) Rick Galati <rick6a(at)yahoo.com>

writes:

 	  Quote: 	
		   Listers,

    

   Oftentimes a weather report or outlook will include wording 

 something similar to this....."a  40% chance of thunderstorms 

 occurring."  My question is this. What does a "40% chance" actually 

 mean?  By my (always suspect) reasoning,  I've long thought it meant 

 something along these lines:  Under similiar atmospheric conditions, 

 thunderstorms have developed 40% of the time.  Is this or is this 

 not an accurate opinion?

    

   Also on a non RV related note......You read that it was a "3" 

 alarm or a "4" alarm fire.   What do the number of alarms reported 

 really mean?

    

   Rick Galati  RV-6A  "Darla"

- The Matronics RV-List Email Forum -

Use the List Feature Navigator to browse the many List utilities available such as the Email Subscriptions page, Archive Search & Download, 7-Day Browse, Chat, FAQ, Photoshare, and much more:

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PFolbrecht(at)starkinvest
Guest

Posted: Tue Jun 27, 2006 7:15 am Post subject: Chances are.....

With no disrespect, I don't think that's too accurate.  Steady-state

cells, especially, come and go all the time - some don't last more than

an hour.  The statistical nature of describing convective activity has a

lot more to do with whether or not storms form at all than predicting

where existing storms are going.



Paul



(Not a WX expert by any means, but had to study for the PPL and IA

writtens in the last few years.)



Do not archive



--

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